'Year of the Pickup' sputters

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The rugged new Chevy Silverado and the mighty Toyota Tundra can haul 10 axle-busting tons between them. But those extremely capable, mainstream bruisers haven't been able to move sales this year in the profitable full-size pickup segment. This was supposed to be the Year of the Pickup, a torrid 12-month period of truck sales pushed to new heights by revamped models such as the Silverado, Tundra, GMC Sierra and Ford Super Duty.

Four months into the year, though, full-size pickup sales are down nearly 5 percent from the same period a year ago – a drop analysts didn't expect and one that privately frustrates automakers. Although a 5 percent drop might not seem dramatic, truck sales last year were mediocre, held down by aging vehicles and rising gas prices. With four new models in the seven-truck segment, the drop this year is especially disappointing, analysts say. Moreover, even vaunted Toyota has been affected. The company wants to sell 200,000 Tundras this year, or about 16,600 trucks a month. While Tundra sales are rising, they had not hit 16,600 through April, analysts say.

As powerful as the new trucks are, they are fighting fierce economic headwinds that include a slumping housing market, higher mortgage payments and rising gas prices, analysts say.

Housing starts aren't what they should be, so people in the business aren't buying," said Jack Nerad, executive market analyst at Kelley Blue Book. "I think $3-a-gallon gas is a factor. But a lot of it is just the perception that this might not be a great time to buy a big, fuel-thirsty vehicle."
Though they began arriving at dealerships just a few months ago, the Tundra, Silverado and Sierra already have incentives on them and are likely to get more this month as automakers prepare for Memorial Day sales, analysts say.

While automakers won't divulge their marketing plans, they don't dispute the strategy, even at Toyota, where incentives are usually not a big part of the business. "We came to market with what we know is a very, very competitive product that stands up to anything in the segment, and I think our sales volumes are very good for this point in the launch," said Brian Smith, Toyota Motor Corp.'s corporate manager of truck operations. "In pickups, though, the competitiveness of the deal is as important as the strength of the product."

Volume vs. profit

In April, the average incentive on a pickup was $3,333 – only slightly lower than $3,570 a year earlier, said Jesse Topak, executive director of industry analysis at Edmunds.com.
"They will keep adjusting prices until they get the volume where they want it," Mr. Topak said.
But incentives will likely cut into crucial truck profits this year.
"There won't be as much profit as they used to get, and Toyota will probably be the biggest loser," said Todd Turner, president of Car Concepts of Thousand Oaks, Calif.
"They had a lot of research and development cost with the Tundra and might be looking at a lower volume this year than they had expected. Now, with incentives, they could be getting less return on that volume."
For years, pickup trucks have been the top-selling vehicles of any kind in the U.S. – with the Ford F-series pickup No. 1, Chevy Silverado No. 2 and Dodge Ram No. 4.
Through April, sales of the new Silverado were slightly lower than during the same period last year for the old Silverado – 202,151 compared with 203,062, according to Automotive News. The Sierra's sales were up 2.2 percent, and the Tundra's rose 6.7 percent.

Tundra's tale

"The Tundra had a very good April," said Tom Libby, senior director of industry analysis at the Power Information Network, a division of J.D. Power and Associates. "They have more than doubled their sales since the Tundra arrived, but they are still not where they expect to be."
On May 11, Toyota increased incentives in this market by another $500, dealers said – to more than $2,500. Two weeks ago, General Motors Corp. began offering zero percent financing on new pickups.
"We have said we will be tactical about our incentives, but we will be competitive," said GM spokesman John M. McDonald. "If the overall segment is diminishing and the competition is increasing, what other levers can you pull?"
Meanwhile, truck sales at segment leader Ford fell 13.7 percent through April and dropped 14.2 percent for the Nissan Titan at the bottom of the segment.
Sales of the Dodge Ram, the oldest truck in the segment, were up 1.3 percent, but Dodge also had the largest incentives on its truck – about $6,400, Mr. Topak said.
Even the Tundra carried $2,121 in incentives – up sharply from $605 in March.
"Incentives for both the Silverado and Tundra started earlier than usual," Mr. Topak said.
"But so many buyers use the Internet for their shopping. They can directly compare price. You must be within the consideration set or you don't even get on the list."
The segment's disappointing performance does not surprise one veteran Ford analyst.
"It's a very tough market," said George Pipas, sales analysis manager at Ford Motor Co. "I said last year that were it not for the new product, the underlying economics want the segment to go down."
That may happen anyway, he said.
"I think sales in this [pickup] category may not match last year's sales, which were down 10 percent," he said. "The only way sales are going to match last year's is if incentives go up."

Sunny Southwest

Dealers say the new trucks are mostly meeting sales expectations in the Southwest region, the largest truck market in the U.S.
They think fuel price increases have scared off casual, "recreational" pickup buyers, leaving mainly hard-core truck people who believe they need a pickup for their jobs or lifestyles.
"The Super Duty is doing great," said Jeff Enright, managing partner of Park Cities Ford in Dallas.
"The market will determine incentives. My opinion is Toyota built in room on that truck for incentives. I guess the question is, how much do they want to do?"
Silverado sales are up more than 30 percent at many area Chevrolet dealerships. Ray Huffines, whose family owns Ray Huffines Chevrolet in Plano and Huffines Chevrolet in Lewisville, said Silverado sales were up 49 percent in Plano and 18 percent in Lewisville.
Classic Chevrolet in Grapevine, which was the top-selling Chevy dealership in the U.S. last year, is seeing similar increases.
"I know it's not going quite as good nationally as expected, but it's been good for us," said Tom Durant, who owns the dealership.
"We're averaging 145 [sales] a month for the last four months, and it's still going strong."
Likewise, North Texas Toyota dealers say the Tundra is largely living up to its considerable hype here, even though U.S. sales haven't met goals. Last year, area dealers sold an average of 325 Tundras a month, said Steve Grogean, vice president and general manager of Toyota of Richardson.
"This year, we're averaging 500 a month, and believe we can do 600 or 700," Mr. Grogean said.

Trade-ins

"We have yet to have an old Tundra traded on a new one," added Pat Lobb, owner of Pat Lobb Toyota and Scion of McKinney. "At least 90 percent of what we are selling we are getting Chevy, Ford or Dodge trades. The rest buy them outright without a trade."
This spring, dealer Ronald J. Kutz said he cut back on pickup orders "a little" at the three stores he manages – but not by much.
"Toyota, within 90 days of introducing their new truck, has $3,000 in incentives on it," said Mr. Kutz, president of Kutz Automotive Group, a division of Houston-based Group 1 Automotive that includes Dallas Dodge-Chrysler-Jeep, Courtesy Nissan in Richardson and Rockwall Ford.
"I don't know what will happen this summer, but I know my factories will be with me to sell these trucks."
'Year of the Pickup' sputters | Dallas Morning News | News for Dallas, Texas | Business